A moment of sadness

When Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, I felt an overwhelming sadness. Having been in combat, and lost brothers and sisters in arms, I could not escape the knowledge that innumerable men, women, and children would lose their lives, or have their minds and bodies ravaged by war. I was also appalled, but not really surprised, that Vladimir Putin had chosen to go to war in Ukraine. Sadly, he was somewhat justified in thinking he would achieve a rapid success, leaving his adversaries few options.

The Ukrainian rose to the challenge, employing a combination of Soviet-era weapons and Western technology and training to stop and in some places turn back the invaders. Now, eighteen months into the conflict, this war has become an odd mix of old and new: a brew of World War I-vintage trenches, landmines, and machineguns coupled with state-of-the-art drones spotting for GPS-guided artillery. How will this end?

Endgame?

Sadly, I fear that the First World holds a clue. With Russia able to draw on sufficient men and equipment to fight a defensive war, and the West keeping Ukraine in the fight, it is unlikely either side will achieve the elusive “breakthrough” that generals sought on the Western Front just over a hundred years ago. More likely, the two sides will grind away until one or the other suffers some form of collapse. In 1918 the last great German offensive failed, and when the Allies began to counterattack, an exhausted German could no longer sustain the fight.

I am optimistic that Russia will collapse first: perhaps its troops will refuse to fight, a power broker will eliminate a weaken Putin, or the Russian people will say “Enough!” I fear a world in which Russia is victorious and Putin remains in power.

Whatever the outcome, innumerable men, women, and children on both sides of the front line will lose their lives, and have their minds and bodies ravaged by this war. That is the never-changing cost of war.